In
collaboration with Dr. Michael Agar, principal
investigator on NIH grant DA 10736, Redfish
developed an agent-based model to show how
the “buzz” around a drug generated
incidence curves of different shapes. Use of
Design of Experiment techniques enabled analysis
of multiple runs to show that critical parameters
suggest the relevance of consumer models rather
than traditional models from epidemiology.
This research was presented at the Agents04 conference and is now under review for publication.
An ongoing effort involves an exploration
of the model to better visualize the flow
of change in agent attitudes that produce
the incidence curve. A second effort now
in progress focuses on the characteristics
of a drug market and how systems of production
and distribution emerge. A third effort centers
on the possible use of the models as policy
and intervention tools.
An innovation in this research is the link
between ethnographic and historical research
and agent-based models. Translation between
thick description of local social practices
and abstract clarity of formal models is
an enduring issue in social research with
a pedigree of several centuries. Particular
attention is paid in this project to value
added and lost in the translation process.
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